By Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),Center for the Study of Intelligence,Rob Johnston
He reaches these conclusions during the cautious approaches of an anthropologist—conducting actually hundreds of thousands of interviews and watching and collaborating in dozens of labor teams in intelligence analysis—and in order that they can't simply be brushed off as mere opinion, nonetheless much less because the sour mutterings of these who've misplaced out within the bureaucratic wars. His findings represent not only a robust indictment of how American intelligence plays research, but additionally, and fortunately, a consultant for a way to do better.
Johnston reveals no baseline commonplace analytic procedure. as an alternative, the commonest perform is to behavior restricted brainstorming at the foundation of prior research, hence generating a bias towards confirming past perspectives. The validating of information is questionable—for example, the Directorate of Operations' (DO) "cleaning" of secret agent stories does not let trying out in their validity—reinforcing the tendency to appear for info that confirms, now not refutes, triumphing hypotheses. the method is hazard averse, with huge managerial conservatism. there's even more emphasis on warding off errors than on imagining surprises. The analytic strategy is pushed through present intelligence, particularly the CIA's crown jewel analytic product, the President's day-by-day short (PDB), that can be caricatured as "CNN plus secrets." Johnston does not placed it fairly that method, however the Intelligence neighborhood does extra reporting than in-depth analysis.
None of the analytic firms understands a lot in regards to the analytic concepts of the others. In all, there has a tendency to be even more emphasis on writing and verbal exchange talents than on analytic tools. education is pushed extra through the druthers of person analysts than via any strategic view of the corporations and what they wish. such a lot education is on-the-job.
Johnston identifies the desires for research of no less than 3 sorts of consumers—cops, spies, and infantrymen. the desires of these shoppers produce no less than 3 precise different types of intelligence—investigative or operational, strategic, and tactical.
The learn indicates the necessity for severe research of analytic equipment throughout all 3, guided by means of specialist methodologists. Analysts must have many extra possibilities to do fieldwork out of the country. they need to additionally circulate even more usually around the company "stovepipes" they now inhabit. those activities may provide them a richer experience for the way different organizations do analysis.
CHAPTER ONE - Definitions * bankruptcy - Findings * bankruptcy 3 - A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables * bankruptcy 4 - trying out the Intelligence Cycle via structures Modeling and Simulation * bankruptcy 5 - Integrating Methodologists into groups of specialists * bankruptcy SIX - The query of international Cultures: fighting Ethnocentrism in Intelligence research * bankruptcy SEVEN - tutorial expertise: Effectiveness and Implications for the Intelligence neighborhood * bankruptcy 8 - Organizational tradition: Anticipatory Socialization and Intelligence Analysts * bankruptcy 9 - options: step one: spotting A basic challenge * bankruptcy TEN - Survey technique * bankruptcy 11 - Q-Sort method * bankruptcy TWELVE - The "File-Drawer" challenge and Calculation of impression Size
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Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study - Working as an Intelligence Analyst, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Intelligence Papers by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),Center for the Study of Intelligence,Rob Johnston